Good Start = Good Finish

With the Liga Sagres getting underway this weekend, I'd like to take a look at the beginning of the season and its importance to a successful year. The first two months are a delicate time of the season, they are a time when a team begins to establish their identity and show their potential. A strong start is always a way for the team to lay down the groundwork for the rest of the season.

It'll be a long and grueling season, with games for the Liga Sagres, Uefa Cup, Portuguese Cup and League Cup, a season that will undoubtedly go over 50 games. Success in all of these competitions can only be achieved with a good level of consistency, but before you can attain consistent performances, a positive momentum needs to be created.

Here are the first 8 games for the Liga Sagres

8/24 @ Rio Ave
8/30 Porto
9/21 @ P. Ferreira
9/28 Sporting
10/5 @ Leixoes
10/26 Naval
11/2 @ Guimaraes
11/16 Estrela da Amadora

The first 4 games are of a high degree of difficulty. The Rio Ave match up because it's the first game of the season and there's always a certain level of anxiety before the first game, and the pressure to start with a win. Last year Benfica tied newly promoted Leixoes away in a game that set in motion the sacking of Fernando Santos. This year's season opener is also away against a newly promoted team.
The second match of the season brings porto to Estadio da Luz, in an early clash of contenders. I've always said that championships aren't won in games against your direct rivals, but against the teams you are supposed to beat, so, despite being a hard game, the result is irrelevant at this point of the season, but it carries important consequences. A positive result will not only start the momentum rolling, as it will also affect the team psychologically in a positive way, not to mention that it's a home game and Benfica should be establishing home dominance.
The head to head results between contenders will also serve as tie breakers towards the end of the season.
The game at P.Ferreira is always a hard one for any team, and not always because of the quality of the team, but because of the playing field. It's a pitch that is very small, and teams often have difficulty playing their game, especially those that use the whole lenght of the field.
With P.Ferreira acting as a bridge, Benfica will host another rival, Sporting. Another home game, and another opportunity to assert home dominance. Sporting will also play porto the following week, so it is an opportunity for Benfica to get out in front, and keep all of their direct opponents at bay.
The second 4 games get a little easier with games against: Leixoes(a), Naval(h), Guimaraes(a) and Estrela da Amadora(h). Not as difficult as the first 4 games, but as important. If Benfica can finish off these games with maximum points they will be in a very good position in relation to their opponents. The Guimaraes game is a tough game, but if Benfica goes into these last 4 games with momentum, there's a good chance to come out with maximum points.

I ran into an interesting statistic at Vedeta da Bola, in which the author breaks down the the past 6 season starts.
In 02/03 after the 8th game porto was already +8pts, porto would go on to be champion.
In 03/04 after the 5th game porto was +5pts, porto would go on to be champion.
In 04/05 after the 3rd game Benfica was +6pts, and would go on to be champion.
In 05/06 after the 3rd game porto was +8pts, and would go on to be that year's league winner.
In 06/07 after the 4th game porto was +8pts, and would be champion.
In 07/08 after the 6th game porto was +8pts, and would be champion.

As you can see, there is a clear favorable advantage for the team that goes ahead early. The team not only takes on the drivers seat, but it also relieves some of season starting pressure, where the team is less than optimal form.
Coming out of the gate early will eventually pay off towards the end of the season where those points will be needed the most.

The match ups against Sporting and porto are irrelevant this early, but the fact that they are being played at home, makes them imperative wins. When the second half of the season starts, Benfica will have to travel to both, and that by itself will be hard. Wins at home can cancel out a negative results when Benfica meets porto and sporting away, positive away results will result in Benfica having the upper hand.

A very important first 2 months of the season, where Benfica needs to remain at the top, worst case, within striking distance of their rivals.
Let's hope the season can start with positive results and Benfica establish home dominance, which was something that the team didn't have last season, which contributed to one of the worst seasons of the club's history.