Uefa Cup - Exploring the Possibilities

With a crucial UEFA Cup game just a couple of days a way, and next round advancement all but secured, I'd like to explore some of the possibilities, and what will it take to put Benfica through.

As of right now, this is how the group stands:
Galatasaray leads the group with nothing but wins, followed by Hertha with 2 draws, Benfica and Metalist share points, although the Ukranian side has only played one game.
Olympiacos closes out the group, and they are yet to gather any points, but also having played only one game.
Taking in consideration that the top 3 will advance to the fnext round, you'd have to assume that a minimum of 5 points will be the bare minimum to see Benfica through.

Galatasaray look like the runaway this early, no other team has really distanced themselves from the pack. They will need to beat Metalist this Thursday, and if they do, they will guarantee themselves a spot in the next round, as by beating Metalist they wil distance themselves from the pack.

After tying Benfica at home, Hertha couldn't do better than a tie in the Ukraine. Things could be looking a lot worst for Benfica had Hertha gotten the 3 points against Metalist. Instead, Hertha's tie kept the middle of the pack close.

Benfica who had a tough game in Germany, and was able to come out with a favorable result, only to drop 3 to group leaders Galatasaray. Galatasaray can help Benfica with a win at home against Metalist this coming Thursday, keeping Metalist at bay, and keeping the middle pack close.

Having lost to group leaders Galatasaray, Olympiacos still has their whole qualification wide open, they will need a positive result against Benfica to keep controlling their destiny, but if they don't, they still have two games remaining to make their case for the next round, in my opinion they are the key to this group.

Metalist has a tough game in Turkey this Thursday, if they fail to come away with points they will have an uphill climb

Here are the remaining games for the group:


Galatasaray will most likely clinch a spot into the next round with a home win against Metalist.
They will then go to Germany in a game that will hold almost no meaning for them, assuming that they will beat Metalist this Thursday off course.

Hertha will have a bye this round and hope that neither Metalist nor Benfica will get too far ahead of them on the table.

Benfica has a tough trip to Greece, where they will need to come out with a least a tie, if they are to keep any hopes a live for the next round.

Here are the possible standings after Thursday's round

Galatasaray win
Benfica win

Table will look like this:
Galatasaray 9
Benfica 4
Hertha 2
Metalist 1
Olympiacos 0

Galatasaray tie
Benfica tie

Galatasaray 7
Hertha 2
Benfica 2
Metalist 2
Olympiacos 1

Galatasaray loss
Benfica loss

Galatasaray 6
Hertha 4
Metalist 4
Olympiacos 3
Benfica 1

Basically, Galatasaray will continue to be group leaders no matter what the result of their game is. As you can see, a loss for Benfica would be catastrophic, and would surely see them out of the UEFA Cup. A tie would not be the death of Benfica, but both teams under Benfica still have two games after this round while Benfica only has one, definetely not a good situation to be in. 3 points up for grabs for Benfica, 6 points up for grabs for Olympiacos and Metalist in the final two rounds.

Assuming the almost worst case scenario, Galatasaray beats Metalist and Benfica loses to Olympiacos the standings would look like this:

Galatasaray - 9
Hertha - 4
Olympiacos 3
Metalist -1
Benfica - 1

Metalist hosts Olympiacos in the next round in a deciding game, and a chance for one of the two to position themselves in a contention position.

The Olympiacos-Benfica game holds the key to Benfica's chances. The Galatasaray-Metalist game will be directly connected to Benfica's chances, regardless of the Benfica result.
A win for Metalist will most likely put Benfica out of the competition, were Benfica to lose to Olympiacos

There are a few possibilities, but at this point Benfica still holds their fate in their hand, which is a good thing.