Pre-Season Math

With all the players having returned from their vacations it's time to start taking a look at the squad and Quique's desired number - 25.
Despite the squad being far from being closed, we can already start seeing a nucleus group and a "bubble" group.

The Squad is currently 36 players deep, Quique is working with 35 players(Dimaria is away), but 2 of them seem to already have "marching" orders, Andre Carvalhas and Miguel Rosa, both players have already been announced to be going on loan to Rio Ave and Estoril respectively, but up until Sunday, were still with the squad. Here are the other 33:

GOALIES
Quim, Moreira, Bruno Costa

DEFENDERS
(Right)Nelson, Luis Felipe.
(Center)EdCarlos, Luisao, Miguel Victor, David Luiz, Zoro.
(Left)Leo, Sepsi, Jorge Ribeiro.

MIDFIELDERS
(Right)Maxi, Nuno Assis, Balboa.
(Center)Binya, Petit, Fellipe Bastos, Amorim, Carlos Martins, Aimar, Yebda, Katsouranis.
(Left) (DiMaria)

FORWARDS
Makukula, Cardozo, Dabao, Nuno Gomes, Urreta, Mantorras

Also working with the squad are Juniors Joao Pereira, Abel Pereira and U-16 player Nelson Oliveira

These players make up the 33 players that have not been "cut" from the team.
Assuming, that all 3 Junior players are going back to the formation teams, we are left with 30 + DiMaria = 31.
Taking into consideration that Benfica wants at least 3 more players, the number is back up to 34, 9 more than the number established by Quique.

The 3 players yet to come will most likely be a left midfielder and an immediate impact forward. As far as the third one, it'll depend a lot on what goes on and who figures in Quique's expendable list.
For example, Katsouranis has expressed the desire to leave, if Katsouranis leaves, Benfica will most likely be going after a center back, which is most likely the position in which Katsouranis would be playing this coming year.
I think out of all the sectors that position could really use a bit more of depth, and with Katsouranis leaving that would be the most obvious "hole" to close. One other possibility, and this has been talked about by the media, is another goalie, which makes absolutely no sense to me. Codina was the name talked about, but Benfica has taken a couple steps back as the Real Madrid keeper is too expensive for what Benfica wants to spend. Besides, with Quim and Moreira both healthy, we would have similar situation to last season's. Let's keep the youngster Buno Costa in as the 3rd keeper, and if that isn't an option, Moretto, who is a Benfica player should be taken into consideration. It makes no sense to spend a mill on a keeper, give him a high salary, only to see him sit disgruntled a la Hans Jorg Butt.


ON THE BUBBLE

Luis Felipe - Probably the most detested player by Benfica fans on the squad. With Balboa at right mid, Maxi would automatically be slotted for the right back position, hence pushing Luis Felipe out.

Zoro - Didn't impress last season, and even figured on the "to loan" list at the halfway point, it'll be hard to believe that Zoro can convince Quique, but you never know, and that's why he is on the bubble plus his high salary would make him a great candidate to go on loan.

Miguel Victor - After being on loan at Desportivo das Aves for the second half of the season, Portugal's U-20 captain is looking for a spot in this year's squad, his youth and top level inexperience would be the only thing that could see him go out on loan again, the talent is there, and his loan would greatly depend on whether Benfica brings in a center back or not.

Sepsi - With the arrival of Jorge Ribeiro and Leo as the best left back in the league, Sepsi will most likely be on the outs, unless Quique decides to use him to add depth to the left midfield, it's always an option.

Binya - Was an important part of last season's squad, filling in for Petit when he was injured, but this year the competition is much tougher. Ruben Amorim, Yebda, Petit, Fellipe Bastos, are all players that can play that position, and Binya will most likely end up being very useful to whatever team he goes to, he is still young and can still learn a lot from a loan experience.

Nuno Assis - Assis seems like a man out of place on the right wing, he was not able to put a consistent 90 minutes together last season, and seems to be going to waste on the outside of the midfield. With Aimar and Martins entering the squad, he finds himself, once again, Blocked from his natural position. There are talks about him going back to Guimaraes on a loan.

Yu Dabao - With the forward line being over populated, Dabao sees himself running out of room again. Just like Miguel Victor, he was on loan at Desportivo das Aves, and it seems like he will be going on loan again, especially if Benfica signs the forward they have been hunting for.

Urreta - Unless Quique feels he can add depth to the attacking line, the Uruguayan U-20 will most likely be going on loan for the season.

Mantorras - In my opinion Mantorras should go out on loan. He claims he can play the 90 minutes, yet Benfica rarely starts him, choosing to have him come off the bench. He is the eternal substitute. I know that he has some kind of a pact with LFV, which almost makes him untouchable, but at this point, Benfica really needs to evaluate whether Mantorras can be useful to the team and to what extent. A loan period could serve as that evaluation.

Makukula - Came in last season by the hand of Camacho, and quickly dug himself into a hole, he went from being called to the national team to riding the pine at Benfica, which ultimately cost him the call up to the Euro, off course this isn't anyone's fault but his own, when he failed to impress Camacho then Chalana. He has been working hard, and Benfica's 4m and change investment in him, might be the deciding factor on him staying.

So here are the 10 players who, in my opinion, are on the fence. Their chances of making the squad are dependent on the players yet to come, and the possible exit by Katsouranis, who at this point, is far from having every club in Europe knocking at his door, not to mention Benfica will not let him out for a supposed 10m.
Both Quique and Rui Costa have stated that they only want players that want to be at Benfica which would make a Katsouranis loan move a more viable option.

Benfica will play BlackBurn Rovers this Friday for the Guadiana tournament, in a game where Quique will start "tightening" up the squad to his liking. Benfica will teh play Sporting 2 days later, so expect to see 2 distinct but balanced 11s with the starters going more minutes then they went against Estoril.

I'm also pretty sure the squad will go down in numbers by the time the team travels to Algarve for this weekends games.