With Matchday 4 come and gone, hopefully some of you have had a chance to “digest” Benfica’s result from Tuesday. Benfica was unlucky and should have come out of Celtic Park with at least a tie. Benfica did enough for the win but, not putting goals away will hurt you every time, not to mention the Celtic goal coming from a ball that struck Luisao and fooled Quim. In retrospect Benfica did have a positive performance, but goals win games not performances.
So with 2 more rounds to go, I want to go through the probabilities of what any of the 3 results against Milan can do for Benfica.
In the event of a Benfica win over Milan
A Shakhtar win at Celtic - would still leave the group wide open – both Milan and Shaktar would have 9 points while Celtic and Benfica would have 6 points leaving all decisions for matchday 6..
A Celtic win over Shakhtar – would basically leave everything the same as above except Shakthar and Celtic would swap places.
A tie between Celtic and Shaktar – would see Celtic tie Shaktar with 7 points, while Benfica would then have 6 points. Milan would still lead the group with 9 points.
This last scenario would leave everything open to the last Matchday with Benfica possibly qualifying to the second round with a win over Shakhtar – let’s not forget Celtic would travel to Milan to play Celtic, on what will definitely be a grudge match after the events of the game in Glasgow between these 2 teams.
In the Event of a Benfica tie with Milan –
A Shakhtar win over Celtic - would leave Benfica to fight for a Uefa Cup spot only, and qualification would be dependent on nothing less than a win in the last matchday and a Celtic loss to Milan
A Celtic win over Shakhtar – would have the same result, with Celtic and Shakhtar swapping positions. With Benfica having full control of their destiny, having to play Shakhtar, their direct opposition for Uefa Cup qualification, in the last round.
A Tie between Celtic and Shaktar - would leave everything open to the last matchday – Benfica would have to win to at least qualify for the the Uefa cup, assuming Milan will beat Celtic in the final matchday – it’ll come down to some type of tiebreaker.
In the Event of a Benfica Loss to Milan – Benfica would be out of the Champions League for sure.
A Shakhtar win – would leave Benfica and Celtic to tiebreak for the Uefa cup, assuming Celtic loses to Milan in the last matchday and Benfica beats Shakhtar.
A Celtic win – would be the same as above except, it would leave Shaktar in Celtics situation, and Benfica depending only on themselves to qualify for the Uefa as they will be playing their direct opposition for the Uefa spot.
A tie between Celtic and Shakhtar – would eliminate Benfica altogether from Europe.
To conclude, 2 Benfica wins would give them the best chance to qualify for the second round of the Champions League, and that’s the only thing the team should be aiming for.
# pictures - Isabel Cutileiro
With Matchday 4 come and gone, hopefully some of you have had a chance to “digest” Benfica’s result from Tuesday. Benfica was unlucky and should have come out of 
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